Changes in the Oil and Gas Industry

Today's upstream petroleum sector is not the same as it was three years ago:

• Australian oil production is declining in absolute terms and as a proportion of total petroleum consumption;
• The continuing drought in major new oil discoveries is reinforcing perceptions of low oil prospectivity;
• Oil prices have increased over the past 2 years but the extent to which these prices are sustained over the long term will depend on the global economy and geopolitical circumstances ;
• Global and domestic demand for petroleum products is escalating;
• Australia, for the first time in decades has moved into trade deficit for petroleum products with no signs of reversal;
• The world is becoming more dependant on oil exports from more politically volatile regions which could reduce long term diversity and security of supply;
• The global market for LNG is becoming increasingly competitive;
• Costs of production are increasing rapidly;
• The availability of appropriately skilled labour and equipment is struggling to meet the demand.
• Increased competition for exploration and development capital as more countries seek to develop petroleum industries and established provinces seek to slow their rate of decline.

Clear strategic thinking is required today if the full potential of the industry is to be realised, impediments are to be overcome and wealth and social benefits
to Australia maximised.

Although Australia exports much of its domestic oil and condensate
production and offsets this with imports of other grades of crude oil and refined petroleum products to meet Australian end use needs, a strong domestic industry does act to shield Australia from both the financial impacts of sudden swings in market conditions and international supply disruptions.

Static or reduced OPEC production combined with escalating demand created by rapidly industrialising China and India will continue to create further pressure on the world's known reserves.
With respect to LNG, Australia is a major international participant but it is not the only player and other, low cost producers are entering the market or expanding capacity with cheaper gas supplies, lower construction costs and more attractive approval processes and development conditions.

Substantially increasing costs of materials, equipment and labour are also taking their competitive toll. Making headway in addressing these challenges, so that the full potential of Australia's petroleum industry is realised, demands an immediate and robust
strategic effort. This involves identifying, analysing and addressing the key policy and other issues that impact, either directly or indirectly, on the investment climate within which Australia's petroleum sector operates.

Existing and emerging issues such as the taxation regime, the regulatory environment, resource access, water policy, greenhouse, energy policy, infrastructure and skills shortages, have exposed the urgent need for a comprehensive analysis of the industry that builds on, and is informed by, the
LNG Action Agenda; NatGas (APPEA 2004); the House of Representatives
Standing Committee on Industry and Resources report, Exploring: Australia's
Future (2003); the Australian Government's Energy White Paper (2004); the
International Energy Agency's Australian Report (2005) and a number of other relevant analyses.